OECD: Job Loss from Automation May Be Less Severe than Feared, but Still Painful

OECD: Job Loss from Automation May Be Less Severe than Feared, but Still Painful

A recent report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development finds that the number of jobs at risk of displacement due to automation in the coming years is probably smaller than previous forecasts have estimated. Nonetheless, the tens of millions of workers in developed countries are still at risk of having their jobs replaced or radically altered by AI and robotics. The Verge’s James Vincent summarizes the report’s findings:

The researchers found that only 14 percent of jobs in OECD countries … are “highly automatable,” meaning their probability of automation is 70 percent or higher. This forecast … is still significant, equating to around 66 million job losses.

In America alone, for example, the report suggests that 13 million jobs will be destroyed because of automation. “As job losses are unlikely to be distributed equally across the country, this would amount to several times the disruption in local economies caused by the 1950s decline of the car industry in Detroit where changes in technology and increased automation, among other factors, caused massive job losses,” the researchers write.

The analysis from the OECD, an inter-governmental organization representing the world’s 35 richest countries, is considerably less disconcerting than previous studies that have calculated the risk of automation at anywhere from 30 percent to fully half of all the work currently being performed globally. One difference between this study and previous ones, Vincent explains, is that it pays greater attention to details like whether a job can be fully or only partly automated and the variations among jobs that may have the same title but whose work differs substantially:

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PwC Study: Improving Vocational Training Would Lead to Billions in GDP Growth

PwC Study: Improving Vocational Training Would Lead to Billions in GDP Growth

In its 2017 Young Workers Index, PwC surveyed the economies of the 35 OECD member countries, creating an indexed ranking of the countries’ expected productivity from younger workers. Switzerland, Iceland, and Germany, were the top three, while the US finished 12th and the UK landed in 18th: both moved up two spots from last year’s rankings.

Germany’s result is probably the most impressive given that it also has the fourth-highest GDP in the world. The US has the world’s largest GDP while the UK is fifth in the measure of economic productivity. France, which stands sixth in GDP, was ranked 29th in the Young Workers Index while Canada, with the world’s 10th-largest GDP, was ranked sixth.

The study also looked into the effects automation will have on job prospects for workers in this age cohort. It found that 39 percent of jobs for US workers aged 15-24 are at risk of being lost to automation, compared to 24 percent in Japan, 28 percent in the UK, and 38 percent in Germany.

One of the metrics tracked in the Young Workers Index, the NEET (not in education, employment or training) rate, is identified as a key metric for overcoming the risks of automation and driving growth. The study claims that if all 35 of the OECD countries lowered their NEET to that of Germany (9.3 percent), it would lead to $1.2 trillion in GDP growth. For the United States, it predicts a $428 billion, or 2.2 percent, rise in GDP by lowering NEET from 15.8 percent down to Germany’s level.

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